San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

My wife and I used to live five minutes walk away from 4S Ranch.

I think that is a nice price. I'm not saying those houses couldn't fall in value during the next 24 months, but we would be willing to buy at that price (except we now live in the Bay Area)

Read the news about rates. The Fed has started TODAY implementing its long term plan of buying up to 500M of mortgages. I would WAIT at least a few days and watch the rates to see if the Fed can pull them down, but that is just a GUESS based on instincts. talk to HLS, who seems very savvy:

http://piggington.com/contact_info_for_hls

Keep in mind we are at about 5% for 30-year fixed, but the Fed has talked about using their spending power to pull that down to 4.5%. Nobody really knows IF the Fed will actually go after that target.

I live in the area and would be interested to know which development/ subdivision you bought in so I know where prices are going.

Garden Path right?? Mellos are 350, sq ftg is about right so thats my guess.

Hi stockstradr
Thank you for your info. just now, BOFA gave 5.125%, 0 points, 30 Year fixed confirming loan. I will wait couple of days. I am guessing, rate may go down to 4.875% in next three or four days.
Thank you.

Where exactly, if you don' mind me asking?

Hi LAAFTERHOURS,
I do not know, this one is garden gate or some thing else. It has one Bed/Bath on first floor and three Beds/Baths on second floor. This one is detached Condominium. It has back yard and both sides side yard.
I looked at several homes in last 18 months in RB East and West. Some how I thought, buying a 2 or three year old home is better (with mello-roos too) than buying old (15 or 20 years) home. Because similar size homes are right now priced at 570 to 580K that are more than 15 years old and no mello-roos.
This home is move in condition with a very little work. Handy man gave an estimate of ($600). Couple of chips in shower,a small crack on bath tub, small water leak from kitchen faucet and two rusted nut under two sinks.

.

Street??

I've done a little search and I believe the street is Cherry Blossom, the year is 2006 though.
Like this one:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080077249-10...

Looks like a short sale.

Is that the one, RB-Home Buyer? If yes, how did you manage to get you offer accepted?

Just curious, to me it seems that it takes so much time , patience, and luck to get a short sale...

This link is way below than the price from the above link

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080056102-10...

There are few more in this area soldout around 514K and 520k. The link that I submitted went in to Escrow at 534K in the past months and back on to shortsale pool. Interesting is why this came back from Escrow. RB-Home Buyer, did you have enough research on this?

Hi LAAFTERHOURS
Street - Camino San Thomas.

Hi 5yearwaiter
My agent got the following info from listing agent.
"It was in escrow in August 2008. It was fall out of escrow in first week of Decenber 2008, because of contingency condition. The buyer was not able to sell his existing home."
I did not do any special research. Completed inspection with AmeriSpec.

Thanks for the info - I assumed it was where you stated. Those homes are the same as ones in the only gated community on the other side of camino del norte. Only difference is the mello roos but otherwise same homes. You also got the biggest plan in the development if im correct.

Your subd is called Garden Walk, the other Garden Gate both built by Sea Country Homes.

Good luck with your purchase!

Congratulations!

I think you outbid me on this one. After making offer on this, I changed my mind and decided that I may postpone the home buying for a little bit.

It is a great house. It is well worth the price.

RB-Home buyer !! congratulations on behalf of our Pigs.... I believe you wait n get what you want... Have fun in the home and it's worth need not panic even few other houses slip price further a bit on a long range ...

Hi RB-Home Buyer

I was quite intrigued that the original accepted offer was actually accepted with a contingency of sale. As this is a bank owned property it is not normal practice for a lender to accept an offer that has a contingency of sale in it.

At any rate, looks like that was good for you, best of luck!

So why is this a good deal? Wasn't the 4s Ranch development built during the bubble so it could take a huge hit.

Also, high $400s a month for HOA & Mello! I haven't seen the property which I'm sure is nice newer construction, but I don't think the lot is very big. And if I hear one more argument that my payment is close to what rent would be I might just puke because some people just don't understand that on $500k properties they are giving $100k to the bank, they have insurance and maintenance to pay, and in some cases have Mello and rising HOA over the years.

You should really think about waiting this one out unless it is 20% lower than closed sales in the development the last few months.

waterboy - you aren't placing enough value on the fireproof-ness of 4S ranch - obviously that justifies paying $500K for a condo

Where exactly, if you don' mind me asking?

Two years ago we lived at one of the 3/2 condos in The Summit at 17161 Alva Rd, San Diego, CA

We liked that area. It is quiet. Obviously not the most (or least) desired area of RB, but still quite nice. Low crime. Across the freeway over in the area of Bernardo Heights Parkway is better. We also lived over there for a while.

I remember walking over to 4S when they were still selling well, and they wanted like $750K or more for those places, and they were sooo snooty. As if they were doing us a favor just to show us a place.

Hi cahunter,
Thank you.
If you do not buy now, you will buy a bigger home for the same price in future. That is happening to me. But do not wait too long (May be OK, one year from now). You will not know the bottom until it passed.

I know the prices are going south. But I decided to buy a home. I am planning to keep the home at least another six years. As per Rent Vs Own calculation, if appreciation is 2.0% per annum on purchase price, I will not lose any money. At lest we will enjoy four bed room house. Right now I am paying 1700 per/Month for two bed and two bath.
Thank you.

Don't catch a falling knife! You will regret it very soon or worse end up foreclosing in 1-2 years!

At $230 sqft for a CONDO in 4S Ranch and the economy imploding this is not a "deal" ... but maybe this is just me ...

Good luck anyway!

SD Realtor,

RB-Home Buyer was misinformed (I was the one who fell out of escrow) there was no contigency. I had trouble getting the loan through in a timely manner as my lender kept making up new things that I needed in order to get the loan done. They asked for an actual CPA audit to verify my income! Right when docs were to be drawn the selling agent lost patience and bumped us out. (Can't say I blame them, however!We were in day 100 or so of escrow.)

Lucky for me anyway, we did find a better property and should close this week, though my wife was heartbroken that we lost Camino San Thomas.

That makes alot more sense Misheloff. I don't think I had ever seen an REO where the lender accepted a contingency of sale offer.

Hi Misheloff,
Thank you for sharing info.

So if buyer gets a 5% fixed and finance $420k with the other $110k down that is approx $2,254 a month plus $473 Mello/HOA and lets say $100mo for insurance and maint. Insurance might be more in that area due to fires? That is $2,827mo and I didn't factor property taxes because that annual amt is likely right around the tax break you get for owning.

This is a bubble development. Many bought at peak so we will see many more REO properties in 4S Ranch. Won't look like such a deal when you have $110k down, paying $2,827mo and comps around you are selling for $450k in the next 6-12mo.

If it wasn't such a new area then I wouldn't worry that much, but with hundreds of your neighbors close to giving their homes back to the bank....I would worry about how low those banks will sell at

I think the idea that hundreds of 4S neighbors will be giving their homes back is absurb hyperbole. They come in onesies and twosies. It will take 6 to 9 months for them to come on the market if someone gets a Notice of Default in the next month or two.

Furthermore, there arent many new detached homes on the market under 600K. We are heading into our secular Spring rally and I gotta beleive all those tech companies in RB and beyond are going to hire at least a dozen well paid professionals some of whom will have families and want nice homes nearby. The numbers should actually be much higher. It would greatly surprise me to see that house sell for $450K in the next 6 months. It could crack under $500 within 12 months but $450 is just a tad more than we'll see this year IMO.

Check with Indymac. 4.875, 0pts, conforming 30 year and they are giving me a credit that covers most of the expenses.

So maybe hundreds is a little high. I wonder if anyone can easily pull up the current NOD numbers for the master community?

Here is the latest Fed forecast on CNN

Federal Reserve forecasted continued economic decline in 2009, steep unemployment rise into 2010. More soon.

Time will tell, but I still think some will sell for mid $400s a year from now

Waterboy last year I posted a thread where I did a search on sold homes in 4S that had a few strings like "short sale", "bank owned" etc in the comment fields. It was by no means scientific but it did show an increasing trend in distress sales for the community from 05-07. If I have a chance this week I will try to perform the same experiment. Again it will not give exact data but it will give us an idea percentage wise of the distress level and perhaps give an indication of what we can extrapolate moving forward.

Agreed with the dour outlook for the economy and unemployment. However I also feel out incoming president will take unprecedented steps to keep people in homes.

Two forces, opposite directions.

What kind of trick is this to hide real information and instead giving misinformation. May be RB- Home buyer may seek some additional deal from bank based on this misinformation that was given to him :-) Trying to save a buck to our Piggs

Hi TomInCarlsbad,
I will check rightaway.
Thank you.

I locked the interest rate with BOFA.
Details are
Interest Rate: 4.625%, 0 Points, 30 Year confirmed.
BOFA waived 3/4 points (4.75-0.125), because I have prima account with them.
As per the BOFA interest rates are down today after noon
Thank you TomInCarlsbad, updating me in right time.