San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Thanks for posting info on this place. I was looking in P.B. and this is out of my budget, but people are saying the million dollar homes won't be affected. This is reassuring. No one will be unaffected. That's a pretty big hit. Maybe other places in the area will come down. So far people are not wanting to budge much. Holding tight.

I own a place in PB and have a client shopping around up on Soledad and we are seeing pricing move down in PB. Like you said jp alot of people are dug in. After the spring is over it will be interesting to see what happens. In the long run if you can wait until 2010 or 2011 there will be some very good opportunities.

SD Realtor

Thanks SD Realtor. I don't have a choice but to wait. My credit is good and my debt is low, but I refuse to get in over my head. I didn't do any zero-down, interest-only ARMs, thinking I'm doing the right thing being cautious and conservative. Of course in 4+ years have seen prices double. So discouraging.

So now that people have to prove they can afford a place, I'm hoping the prices come down to something reasonable. There's a place on Law Street that's listed at 1.3. Been on the market for a verrry LONG time, like a year at least. It goes off the market and relists. In any case, the guy has a NOD and it'll take 20k to be current. Yet still has not reduced the price.

I don't get it. W/the way the market is w/defaults and foreclosures and tightening of credit, who is going to buy that place?

yes, PB is rather expensive for what you get. Older home surrounded by transient neighbors. It was great living there for 7 years with the beach and eye candy. If I could afford something in north PB with a garage, etc. I'd be happy, but that's looking at 1+ mil. :(

The house that the OP talks about is definitely odd. While they were building, I wondered who would want it. After it sold, they built another odd one right up against the first one.

We've been considering spending $350-400k to add a large bit of sqf onto a house in PB (a tiny old 2bd on a full lot). But I'm starting to think we'll be able to buy another property here for that kind of money, if we just wait a few years.

I'm thinking in a few years prices will come down. There are still homes in P.B. occupied by seniors and I read on this board demographically they will be adding to the inventory when they sell, move in w/kids, nursing homes, etc. So besides the defaults/foreclosures, add to the soup the elderly and job losses forcing sale, job transfers, divorce, etc. the increased inventory w/the shortage of qualified buyers will force the price down. But it'll take a while.

I keep going back and forth whether I want to buy in P.B. The prices just don't justify it. 700k for a shack in P.B. or 700k in Carmel Valley or 4S Ranch, better schools, better resale value, better, cleaner, safer, etc.
Still I check P.B., just to see if there's any deals there. I think barring something unforseen happening to boost real estate, prices will eventually come down even in P.B. I've seen prices come down in LJ.

You probably will be able to buy another bigger place in P.B. if you wait. There are some new ones built that are pretty impressive that in a few years will be reduced. Some people took seconds and expanded their place and now can't afford it.

I've lived in PB for about 15 years, and I've driven by the house discussed in this thread many times on the way up/down Mt. Soledad... I wouldn't even consider that location to really be PB. It is a very funky location, and I am not surprised it has fallen so much. As for falling home prices in PB in general, I just cannot imagine prices in PB ever coming down to $350 or $400k for anything anyone would want to live in or anything in a good location. So far, the single family homes are holding value in the better PB areas. I own a condo in PB and would love to buy a house there, but the prices that people are willing and apparently able to pay are staying very high.

I'm starting to think it might be possible. It's falling in line with rents. Not too many years ago I remember a beautiful house on Opal going for $400k, and that seemed like a crazy price. I'm hoping for a good strong backlash from the bubble (and I own a house here already).

I do consider the OP area part of PB. It's probably 'cause one of the kids I grew up with lived over there so it was part of our lives. We hated going over there because of the bike ride, but he had a pool, so we took the hills. But, those 2 houses are too weird.

So far people are holding on in the desperate denial that things are not that bad. But if they were smart, anyone in trouble would get out while they can. It's going to get worse before better. Read any of the topics on this site. I think about maybe scrounging up the money for any old place I can get and then I think, what if that nice place I really want goes down in price a year or 2 from now.

It's not impossible. It will be a year or 2 before this market plateaus.

I'd love to pick up a house on Opal for $400k, but I just can't see it... especially considering a teeny one up by Ingraham on Opal sold less than a year ago for well over $800k, and a fixer, but large on a good size lot, in I think maybe the 1200 block, sold within the past 6 months or so for well over $800k. Rents seem pretty high around here too... $2400 and up for a 3 BR condo is a bit much! I'll be with you watching to see what happens. I look at the listings and the solds all the time waiting for some movement in PB. I'd love to keep my condo and pick up a cheap house!

$2400 for a 3br is not too much when you look at it as $800x3.

$800 is nothing to live in pb with two of your friends! Remember, a large part of pb are the college kids.

There were 1br apts in my old complex that had 2 girls living in them. I guess when you are 21, you don't need space, just the beach and close bar proximity!

A lot of those little houses get bought by developers who don't care about the $$$$. They mow it down and throw up 4 to 6 condos for 700k. Those sales won't be happening much in this market now, so maybe the condo building will slow a little.

PB has held up well. I sold in 10/05 and was hoping prices would come down faster than they have. I think what may really accelerate the decline here will be the option arm resets. Late last year I decided to practice my title researching at the county recorders office. I picked 3 neighbors to practice on. All 3 had option arms with a 1% teaser and reset in 09 or 10. It really surprised me. These are people that bought many years ago and couldn't resist the temp. to take money out. These are people I'm pretty sure can't qualify at a int. only or fully amortized rate.