San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

25% off peak 2005 is nothing. between 2004-2005, there was substantial (if not ridiculous )appreciation during 1 year. and plenty of people paying through their noses in 2006.

By this I assume you mean that you believe that there is a lot more to come. If that's what you mean, I totally agree.

Any way you slice it, a half a million dollars (plus transaction costs) is a lot of money for some poor bastard to have lost in 3 years.

I've said before, during the '90's I saw 20% off the top like that!

I kept hearing how Carmel Valley is immune and I say it does not have its own sustainable economy, does not live in a protected bubble and will fall just like everyone else.

In fact, most of Carmel Valley's McMansions were built during the bubble. Remember that back in 2000 you can still get a SFH in the 300k or so range.

In the '90's we did not suffer a world economic crisis, government wasn't on a mission to bail out anybody and unemployment wasn't anywhere near the road we're on now. And yet CV still had a 20% decline.

Oh, there will be more to come. Alt-A and option ARMs recasting and resetting, unemployment rising, credit still tight, no more trick loans, no more musical chairs/buying up/flipping, should be interesting.

My retail bank branch manager friend stated that Carmel Valley is among the leaders if not the leader in the county for car repos. I think he mentioned this in 2008. Draw your own conclusions.

I would agree that desireable areas like CV, 4S and LCV will continue to decline. Based on economic conditions I think we could see another pretty goood sized chunk over the next 2-3 years if the government lets the market progress in a free manner.

Also I don't read where people have claimed immunity for Carmel Valley. I have seen postings where people claim that it has held up better then other areas but I don't confuse that with an immunity claim.

MIT - That's great information. Is there any way you can dig up official data on this and post it ? Maybe your friend can direct you to some industry databases or something.

It's still a tract house, and 1.47m still does not make sense. You could live in Olivenhain for that money. There are a few dozen listings in RSF under 2m mark.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090003508-29...

half a million dollars ... is a lot of money for some poor bastard

Was this a short sale or foreclosure? If not, why did he had to sell? I am curious what was the down payment. If it was little or none, he is not a "poor bastard" but a smart crook who took the bank to the cleaners. (Now of course, the taxpayers/citizens will clean the mess)

Realtors who are knowledgeable on CV, your kind and valuable opinion please:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090004696-12...

What do you think this active listing will likely sell for in this market?

I'm kinda curious how an ex-coworker's house value is holding up. I'm using the above home as a proxy. My friend's home is similar size to above active listing, and similar size. This is his home:

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-3CFE84C...

HOWEVER, I think my friend's home interior is more like this link below (so not nearly showing as well as the first link) and probably has no pool:

http://www.sdlookup.com/Pictures-080080438

My friend paid about $373/sq ft (including needed renovation costs)

It seems that area has held its value well into last year. Starting this year with the accelerating job layoffs hitting even the economic brackets of these homeowners, I think home values in these areas will start to take a hit.

Sorry stocktradr but did you not post the following a couple days ago?

"And THAT reminds me, I am have now exceeded my self-imposed ration of ONE post per month to this ridiculous blog site.

Time to ignore this web site for at least another 30-days."

Come back in 30 days and we'll provide you the information you want to gloat about your "friends" misfortune.

That one was for you FLU. We Realtors can be precise on points too.

Piggington.com is an evil addiction that has me in its grip.

:-)

I do need to go cold turkey from this place, yes.

I am going to refrain from speculation and give a few facts so you can draw your own conclusion.

The first comp you listed on 12166 Carmel Park which is currently at 825 was listed last year at an opening price of 960k. The owners have chased the market down and are now at a price that IMO will still not be reached. They were in a price range of 825-875 when they gave up on the listing during the previous listing period.

The second comp you listed on San Maritine which is at 749k has been on the market for 60 days. Of course they to were listed last fall but only for 40 days and they were at 775-795.

Speculating about this region is kind of worthless, especially given the fact that there is only one property even pending right now that is over 2000 sf. The region I defined was a simple polygon around the Carmel del Mar Park.

That "poor person" that lost $500k i suspect is the bank...or I should say us "poor taxpayers". You think the buyer actually lost $500k?
I'd be curious for someone to dig up his/her loan papers. If I suspect, i would guess someone with 100% financing or at most 20% down, with interest only....I'll refrain from speculation though.

Nevertheless, I think the top end $1.3-1.9 million are gonna get hit big time no doubt.

bring data. Specifically, I wouldn't mind a nice repo.

Lol...powned.

BTW: I thought the unemployment numbers in Bay Area and L.A. were much worse than S.D. I read that somewhere, but forget now. Let me dig it up.

SD Realtor,

thank you for a valuable opinion on that part of CV where my friend has house. The likely pricing decline in that area something I never discuss with those friends that own that CV house. No way would I rub salt in wound.

Any good CV real estae agents???

Can anyone recommend a good real estate agent who knows the CV inside and out and is willing to show 10 - 15 homes and make an agressive offer...I agree with the above posts but I can't keep on renting for risk of spousal abuse (on me..)

You got it stocks. I understand with what you are saying about not discussing those issues with friends. It can be really touchy. I have alot of clients looking in CV and I tell them all about my projections for it. CV is super super sticky and it will be interesting to see how much longer the stickiness can hold up. Also CV is actually much more diverse then the first glance would indicate.

I don't check Carmel Valley regularly, but these caught my eye:

13789 Rosecroft listed for 900k. Last sold 11/17/2003 for $995,000

and 13211 Petunia Way sold for 575k. Last sold 07/18/2003 for $587,915

JP interesting story about rosecroft. I had an offer in on it for a client last summer. The listing agent was... well let's just say it seems that responses were hard to come by. Anyways this was a short sale and he said that there would be no way his clients would go down to the offer we came in with... Well I guess he was right but our offer was above where the home is now listed.

Anyways you are correct at 900 it is below the 2003 sales price but I still think it has a ways to go.

*******

As for Petunia it is a short sale. Not 100% sure if they have any offers in on it but I believe it to be the case.