San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Try this one for the pictures:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-086008595-13...

Architecturally:
Front of the house is ok,
back is boooring. There seems to be a small patio with a fireplace.. but it has been built so it is right near the neighbors house.. and what is with that strange stub-awning?

Insides are fairly open.. though the pictures were taken with a really wide angle lens, so it is hard to confirm that the rooms are really like that. For scale, the opening on the double glass doors is probably 8 feet (each door 4 feet wide).

Stonebridge is tanking in a huge way. This home is in Calabria. The big problem I have with Stonebridge in general is the location and the fact that it is still very young. No landscape has taken hold yet so everything sits on the pads and there is no character. Lots of distress out there AND unfinished work as well.

SD Realtor

ucodegen - I think that fireplace is actually in the courtyard between the 2 garages. You can't see the courtyard from the from of the house. I am not so impressed w/that kind of layout. Seems like the courtyard wouldn't get much sunlight.

Even the exterior is not so stunning. I've seen much nicer exteriors in 4S Ranch, some that look like villas in Tuscany. But I don't have a million to spend right now. Close, but not quite. Nevertheless, if I had a million right now, I doubt I'd get this place, regardless of their view on top of the hill in the middle of nowhere.

From what I understand, builders in that area are selling homes for under that amount they're asking for this place. Some sod and trees doesn't amount to 300k more than other properties in the area. Builders are willing to deal.

I first noticed this property a month or two ago, and I think it will be a nice barometer of what the market will do over the next couple of months/years. I find it very amusing that someone thought they could turn a quick 200-300K profit on this flip. The thing is, I kind of like this place, and I would consider buying it in the 800's. I think it has a real chance to get there as a REO. What will be interesting to see is what else will be available in a similar price range if the value falls to that level. Personally I want a pool.

That lot sure is big enough for a pool in the backyard, and quite private w/that endless canyon behind you. But I think you're right. If you like that area, it seems 800k would be a very good price. I am not in love w/the area or the house. Probably the people who bought it aren't either, or they'd be living in it. Clearly they bought it for investment purposes only.

I just keep thinking if in 2006 it sold for nearly 1.5 mil, then picking it up for a mil was a good deal. But I agree w/you. It is amusing that someone actually believes they can flip it in today's market for a quick 300k profit. Very bold. I'm just surprised and rather stunned. When I see that, I start questioning whether what I'm hearing about the market is accurate, if these kinds of transactions are still occurring. And if builders are selling for the same amount or less in that area, hard to compete w/builders. Builders are dealing and throwing in xtras and even willing to pay HOAs or buy-downs. Can't justify 300k for some grass and trees, especially if you want a pool anyway.

Yard is definitely big enough for the pool, but for 800 large I want somebody else to build it. Or I'll offer 60K less for the house and then put it in myself.

If you pick up that place for 600k less, you better invite me over for your pool party. :)

I'll tell you I just don't see that place going for any less that 1.1 mil, what the guy paid for it. I see them paying til it hurts to keep it going. Hopefully they have a good realtor who will go out there and market and push to sell.

I don't see the bank taking it back. Maybe they'll rent it out. I don't know what options are available. I don't see them going down or walking away. That would be a hell of a mark on your credit for quite a while.

If you have the kind of pull to get a million dollar house, then why would you take that risk. Of course, I don't know the details, if they put money down, if it's the last of the ARMs.

It will be great to follow this and see what happens for sure. I think they bit off more than they can chew, but you never know. They were foolish enough to buy thinking they've got a deal. Maybe there's another person out there thinking it's a good time to buy and they stopped making land and everyone wants to live here and we've hit bottom and even though the media is putting out all this bad news, next year prices are going to go up, up and away.

If someone buys that place for 1.3+, I want to talk to them about this great bridge I'm trying to sell.

What could this place rent for? 5K/mo? How much more? I would have to imagine the carrying costs on this place are somewhere north of 8K/mo. Who can afford to lose that much every month? I know I can't, and I could probably stretch just enough to afford this place at the asking price (but I wont). Unless the current owners put 50% down I can't see this place penciling out as a rental. That's why I think it's ultimately going back to the bank.

Oh, and it was 60K less, not 600K. Just enough to build a really nice pool.

That's true. I can't imagine paying more thank 5k a month for rent. Even if they put money down, gosh, I can't see more than 20%. Maybe they'll reduce it 20%, then and walk away. Tragic loss for them. Hard lesson.

Sorry I misunderstood about 60k. That would put in a very nice pool. I'll bring towels and suntan lotion. :)

Let's keep an eye. Maybe he will get lucky and find someone to give him what he wants. Surprise us all.

for the full history of this house:

link.

Wow. Thanks for the detail on this one. Quite a history. What do you guys think about the situation now? Anyone going to bite and buy it all fixed up and pretty, regardless of powerlines? If the new owner only put 10% down, there's not much wiggle room. If he really hurts, he can always reduce it by 10%. Think there may be some takers?

I still wouldn't do it, but there are crazier people out there as evidenced by all the foreclosures.

I do not see this listing active on SDLookup or Realtor. Did it sell?

You're right, it's gone. Was there yesterday because I looked to see if they dropped the price yet.

Anybody know out there?

And here I thought Navydoc low-balled them and just in time for a summer pool party. I went and bought a new bottle of sunscreen. Schucks.

I can tell you this, it didn't go pending.

It is in withdrawn status guys.

SD Realtor

Maybe they're re-evaluating and they'll relist it for a more reasonable, less greedy price.

more like let's get that DOM back down to zero. coming up in 1 week: hey guys, we got a brand new listing here!!!

They've done that with this listing once before. I first discovered it last November, the most recent listing only had it on the market less than 30 days.

Greedy prick, hope he gets what's coming to him (or her).

Actually it is a screw up by his agent as well. There are two MLS listings for this property with unique MLS numbers. The first is in withdrawn status as of 2/2/08 and the second expired after 28 days on 2/1/08.

Since I need to watch what I say I will not say anything disparraging.

SD Realtor

It's baack. I guess they're looking for a spring shopping fool. Maybe this time around they'll find a taker. Navydoc - your chance again ;)

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-086033770-13...

Personally, even w/the sales activity which has occurred, it's rather bullish to price it this high. Is the market that strong in Scripps Ranch? Are the developers done w/their discounts there? Is there a remote chance this will sell this time around?

If there is a submarket that is really taking it on the chin in Scripps it is absolutely Stonebridge. No way this home goes for what they are asking but ya know... stranger things have happened. I have whined enough about the flipper who successfully flipped the home around the corner from me on Riesling.. Bought it for like 612k and sold it for 785k... Closed escrow a few weeks ago... the buyer was represented by Prudential and paid all cash.. I wonder if that buyers agent pointed out that less then a year ago that home was sold for 612k... anyways I am bitter and that is not good...

Getting back to this home it has been listed many a time so the seller figures maybe he will find a sucker... it wouldn't be the first right?

Also Scripps seems pretty active still... At least the active pending ratio is back below 2:1... At the moment it is 95 actives and 43 pendings... that is pretty robust to my chagrin....

SD Realtor

Isn't it priced the same as when they took it off the market the last time? Isn't the definition of idiocy doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result?

I still like this place, but wouldn't buy it for more than 900K.

SD, nice to hear Stonebridge is taking it on the chin. I like that community. I was talking to a Realtor friend in SD a couple of weeks ago, he said that many of the new construction with SOLD tags on it there have just been deposits taken, and nowhere close to a done deal.

Should be interesting to see what happens.

Yep. Pretty much same price. Couple months ago listed for $1,299,000 to $1,449,000.

Now, 1.3 to 1.4, basically. These are others in the area for sale prices lower, except for one which is double the lot size. I included it just b/c for the ridiculous price, one could lowball the bigger one and be better off.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-086030976-15...

244 ppsf

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-086021116-13...

224 ppsf

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-086014113-11...

231 ppsf

My favorite: http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-086027761-15...

216 ppsf

This last one is prices more, but more than double the size lot w/pool http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-086032427-11...

Navy off the top of my head I would say at least half of the distress sales in 92131 have been in Stonebridge. It has already taken a leg down of over 20% and more in some of the sales. The developers have been aggressive there as well though this spring there has been a bump in activity.

I would not worry about the reseller at this address, even if he gets his price, which I don't see happening, there is not anything any of us can do about it.

Agreed with you it will be interesting to see what happens. Should leg down hard again within the next 2 years.

SD Realtor

let's trace back a bit.

the flipper got it for $1,080,000 in 8/2007.

he did some exterior cosmetics and listed for $1.5 million, let's just say $40k for the improvements (likely underestimation as he did go for brand new lawns, built-in bbq, pavers in the backyard, and new trees in the front.)

currently he is asking for $1,300,000 in May of '08.

he was late paying his property tax of $20k, but he did finally manage to pay it.

assuming 5% commission, even at $1.3 million he'll only be looking at $95,000 profit.

we know he had just 10% down, so his monthly mortgage runs roughly $6,400, after 10 months of holding this, he is out $64k.

so he's basically hoping for a $30k paycheck on this?

Repeatingly admitting my horrendous math skills, does the 6400 a month include the HOAs and insurance? Must not be counting the property taxes, since you mentioned that seperately that it's current. So they must not be paying the taxes monthly. Nevertheless, shouldn't the property tax be included in the total, since it's money spent, in effect. What were the taxes?

If he's looking to make 30k out of all this, seems like quite a risk, especially w/other nicer homes in the area (some for less) with which to compete against.

The longer it takes to sell, that 30k will be shrinking.

I don't think he will even net the 30k. He had to pay the taxes...

no, I didn't count the HOA or the insurance nor the gardener and utility.

so far he's only out $1,400 on the HOA. as for the mello roos and property tax, those were included in the $20k bill he just paid in May.

this is a HIGH RISK fire insurance area, perhaps the professionals on this board can shed light on how much the insurance bill would have been over the last 10 months.

plus the view at this home ain't so great, hard to get me to even consider paying $700k to look at this every single day for the next 30 years...

right out the front door you see this