Submitted by nostradamus on December 25, 2008 - 1:52pm.
It is a foreclosure. When the bank takes ownership it registers as a sale. The bank is now asking $500k and presumably taking a $79k haircut to face market reality.
No way SEH gets a bump. Several homes sitting at $560K or less unsold. Nice homes too. These are the leftovers from spring for the most part - all those that sold got at least $600K.
Several more foreclosures not on the MLS yet - 1532 Crescent and 1480 Eden. Crescent was unsuccesfully listed at 550K last spring.
Also the preimer neighborhood (Schoolhouse Road) is craking down below 2004 levels - it was holding tight at 900K+ until about a week ago. I suspect this is the Alt-A territory within SEH.
It looks great and at $480K is within my reach. However it's MR is $5,400 semi-annually, with $84/mo. HOA and $9,211 of property tax. Do a quick math ($5,400x2 + $84x12 + $9,211) and I realized that I'd have to pay about $1,750 per month...before mortgage! This is too crazy.
As much as I love the "town within a town" concept of SEH, paying upward of $3,800 per month (mortgage + HOA + MR + property tax) is far from my affordability range. I think any family with combined annual income of less than $140K should stay away from SEH.
Submitted by SD Realtor on December 26, 2008 - 12:08am.
WFB you could be right as I know you have been hawking the area with extreme scrutiny. Whether it gets a bump or not, we both agree on where it will end up.
Submitted by Eugene on December 26, 2008 - 12:22am.
PKMAN wrote:
It looks great and at $480K is within my reach. However it's MR is $5,400 semi-annually, with $84/mo. HOA and $9,211 of property tax. Do a quick math ($5,400x2 + $84x12 + $9,211) and I realized that I'd have to pay about $1,750 per month...before mortgage! This is too crazy.
You did the math wrong, for three reasons.
- 5400 "semi-annually" simply means that you pay MR twice a year, but 5400 is the total annual amount.
- More importantly, 5400 figure is inaccurate. This house really comes with $4281 of mello-roos and $30 of other fixed charges, per year. Base property tax rate is 1.02923. You can always find property tax rate and fixed charges for any house you want at http://www.sdtreastax.com.
- MR is part of your property tax bill.
If you get it for 480k, your total property tax bill will be 480,000*0.0102923 + 4281 + 30 = $9,251 per year. After HOA, you will be paying $855 per month before mortgage. Your mortgage will be in 2000-2500/month range depending on down payment.
esmith - going by your number, the combined monthly payment is still as high as $3355. Since most financial experts will advise that fixed housing expenses not to exceed 50% of household net income, a family will need to net $6,710/mo. or $80,520/yr. to live here. Based on a total of 35% deduction (taxes, 401K, medical, etc.), the family's combined income must be higher than $120K. That's still way too unaffordable for me or most San Diegan families.
SEH properties will be attractive to me only after MR is fully paid off, but that'll be like 20 years later.
Submitted by jetonejet on December 26, 2008 - 9:41am.
More foreclosures coming in SEH. Living here, its very sad to see SO MANY people struggling to make the rediculous Mello Roos, much less the mortgage while I rent for half the price. On my street of about 20 houses, 3 have foreclosed this year, 2 houses are currently vacant ( one of them not even on the MLS) and I know personally 3 houses who have not made a mortgage payment in over 6 months. It seems that there is a high level of people in SEH that are related to housing, construction and finance, so I know for a fact the REO's will only increase in 2009. Watch for low $400K pricing this year.
The area near town center has about $2400/yr. That is the same or less than Bressi, Carillo, and LCG.
The 'bubble' area off of Questhaven (Antilla, Orion) is ridiculous at ~$4800/yr. But still, half the houses or more are in the $2400-$3000 range. Not great, but not an issue worth whining so much about.
$120K in income is really just two school teachers with 5 years experience each.
I think the bottom in the town center area is at 2002 pricing - about $425K-$450K for 3000 sq ft.
Submitted by Eugene on December 26, 2008 - 1:15pm.
PKMAN wrote:
Based on a total of 35% deduction (taxes, 401K, medical, etc.), the family's combined income must be higher than $120K. That's still way too unaffordable for me or most San Diegan families.
Well, SEH is not a middle-class area.
And, your combined monthly payment of $3355/month includes $520 of "forced savings (principal)" and $650-$750 of tax savings. So, your "rent equivalent" is in low 2000's. For a house that rents in high 2000's.
I rent in SEH too. Do you mind sharing your general location and rent? I am near the town cener area (Archer/Sagewood, etc.) and pay $2900 for 3000 sq ft.
Owner paid 715 in 2005. I think this is worth 575-600 right now.
Submitted by jetonejet on December 26, 2008 - 6:13pm.
$2600 for 2600sq ft off on Hollowbrook, and includeds my gardner and water. Owner paid $600K with $300K down, so their not likely going to walk. GOod for me, bad for them.
Submitted by LAAFTERHOURS on December 27, 2008 - 8:05am.
MR are included with your real estate tax bill supposedly and I have asked many people in MR homes if they deduct it - all of them do although not supposed to. I wonder when that will start getting enforced. Until it is, MR arent as bad as they seem. And on that note, with these MR areas as bad as they are, I bet the tax man doesnt enforce it so as to not make things worse.
Two comments about 400K homes - the ones on Old glen backup to Power Towers. That street was asking low 600s back in Jan 2007. These must come way down, possibly sub 400 to be worth anything. Those power towers are too close.
Down the hill near the towncenter on (Calistoga and Kenwood) yes I think these need to get to 400. They are small homes.
I wish someone would put in a cafe/ lounge at night where the adults could walk to in the evenings. Whatever happened to the proposed restaraunts?
Submitted by piggyarg on December 27, 2008 - 8:42am.
Wating for bottom, brace yourelf, we are going lower than 2002 levels, lower than 2000 levels...and even far lower from there. Although it's quite a puzzle, try to incororate the bigger picture. We are in the middle of a nuclear financial war in the USA, and SoCal is part of ground zero. Good luck and take a pulse check about 2013 or a few years later for when I think we are approaching a bottom.
1. Claiming MR as part of the property tax is like speeding, technically illegal but everyone does it. Still, there's a real risk and repercussion of getting caught.
2. Just because MR is tax deductible doesn't mean that it's fully offset. I believe most middle class family will still end up paying 50% - 60%, after tax deduction. For a home with MR of $4,000+, combining with HOA of $85 - $250 per month, that's still a lot.
SEH is a middle class community, and a very attractive one, I must say. If/when an average single family house (2,000 - 2,500 sq.ft.) in good condition falls to less than $400K in SEH, it would be a worthy purchase, offsetting the high MR and/or HOA.
Submitted by piggyarg on December 27, 2008 - 9:27am.
comps become skewed in a ugly downturn. The $400 k example that the previous poster just made, I see going to aprox $250 before we see the real bottom.
Based on current rents, $525K is breakeven point at 4.75% and 20% down.
Also, you cannot compare Old Glenn to the town center area or even the other places off of Questhaven. It is the smallest, cheapest, poorest constructed area of SEH.
Submitted by LAAFTERHOURS on December 27, 2008 - 5:20pm.
waiting for bottom wrote:
Also, you cannot compare Old Glenn to the town center area or even the other places off of Questhaven. It is the smallest, cheapest, poorest constructed area of SEH.
Submitted by Eugene on December 27, 2008 - 5:46pm.
PKMAN wrote:
SEH is a middle class community, and a very attractive one, I must say.
Lake Wobegon effect.
SEH is an upper-middle-class community. It is natural for upper-middle-class communities (SEH) to be very attractive but unaffordable for the middle class, and for upper-class communities (Carmel Valley and La Jolla) to be very attractive but unaffordable for the upper-middle class. And there's nothing anyone can do about it.
Brightwood and Clifftop are nice streets with nice houses. I'll bet 50-60% of Brightwood has been foreclosed or sold short in the past 15 months. I'd live on either street. Watch for the odd numbered house at the end of Brightwood to be listed shortly - it was foreclosed last month. The idiot neighbor bought 1089 at $680K in the past year - knife catcher.
Saverene is average for gated. Houses are above average but lots are really cramped and the worst thing for me is no/small sidewalks. Good deals recently on Trenton but still haven't fallen enough - yet.
Best gated in SEH is Woodcliffe (Schoolhouse, Misty Sea).
That's what exotic financing was for. Now we just need the class movers to get foreclosed on and move back where they belong - then we'll be back to normal.
Submitted by LAAFTERHOURS on December 27, 2008 - 11:43pm.
waiting for bottom wrote:
Brightwood and Clifftop are nice streets with nice houses. I'll bet 50-60% of Brightwood has been foreclosed or sold short in the past 15 months. I'd live on either street. Watch for the odd numbered house at the end of Brightwood to be listed shortly - it was foreclosed last month. The idiot neighbor bought 1089 at $680K in the past year - knife catcher.
Saverene is average for gated. Houses are above average but lots are really cramped and the worst thing for me is no/small sidewalks. Good deals recently on Trenton but still haven't fallen enough - yet.
Best gated in SEH is Woodcliffe (Schoolhouse, Misty Sea).
Thanks for the update - I think you mean Westcliffe, built by ColRich communities and what is Trenton? Also, on this map http://www.sanelijohills.net/html/map.html it looks like the gated community next to brightwood is both azure and saverne, no?
Submitted by piggyarg on December 28, 2008 - 5:27am.
It's my prediction based on observaton of the SoCal, USA, and world economies. The only saving grace which could make that $250k price more firm, is the stronger inflation in the coming years. Good luck. Bear markets in the housing industry usually take years to correct, just think how long THIS ONE will take.
Submitted by bsrsharma on December 28, 2008 - 9:55am.
piggyarg: Your argument is perfectly rational when measured from a fixed value $. But we (USA) have Helicopter Ben exactly to prevent that catastrophe from becoming noticed. He is pumping liquidity fast and creatively enough that asset deflation will not occur. Look for an inflation rate of at least 10% over the next decade as the forced liquidity works its magic. It is the '70s story all over again - an expensive war followed by raging inflation. That helps all debtors, including governments. Really, there are no losers (other than savers, who aren't many) politically.
It is a foreclosure. When the bank takes ownership it registers as a sale. The bank is now asking $500k and presumably taking a $79k haircut to face market reality.
Brightwood and Clifftop falling further if this one goes for 500.
I would agree with you LA... It will not surprise me if we see a bump this spring but in the long run I see more drops up there.
There has to be considering homes built for the 700-800s in 2005 (3K sq ft) are dumping to low 500s.
Should be an interesting one to watch.
No way SEH gets a bump. Several homes sitting at $560K or less unsold. Nice homes too. These are the leftovers from spring for the most part - all those that sold got at least $600K.
Several more foreclosures not on the MLS yet - 1532 Crescent and 1480 Eden. Crescent was unsuccesfully listed at 550K last spring.
Also the preimer neighborhood (Schoolhouse Road) is craking down below 2004 levels - it was holding tight at 900K+ until about a week ago. I suspect this is the Alt-A territory within SEH.
SEH Mello Roos is too ridiculous
I thought long and hard about buying in SEH but ultimately looked elsewhere. This house, for example:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080071528-74...
It looks great and at $480K is within my reach. However it's MR is $5,400 semi-annually, with $84/mo. HOA and $9,211 of property tax. Do a quick math ($5,400x2 + $84x12 + $9,211) and I realized that I'd have to pay about $1,750 per month...before mortgage! This is too crazy.
As much as I love the "town within a town" concept of SEH, paying upward of $3,800 per month (mortgage + HOA + MR + property tax) is far from my affordability range. I think any family with combined annual income of less than $140K should stay away from SEH.
WFB you could be right as I know you have been hawking the area with extreme scrutiny. Whether it gets a bump or not, we both agree on where it will end up.
It looks great and at $480K is within my reach. However it's MR is $5,400 semi-annually, with $84/mo. HOA and $9,211 of property tax. Do a quick math ($5,400x2 + $84x12 + $9,211) and I realized that I'd have to pay about $1,750 per month...before mortgage! This is too crazy.
You did the math wrong, for three reasons.
- 5400 "semi-annually" simply means that you pay MR twice a year, but 5400 is the total annual amount.
- More importantly, 5400 figure is inaccurate. This house really comes with $4281 of mello-roos and $30 of other fixed charges, per year. Base property tax rate is 1.02923. You can always find property tax rate and fixed charges for any house you want at http://www.sdtreastax.com.
- MR is part of your property tax bill.
If you get it for 480k, your total property tax bill will be 480,000*0.0102923 + 4281 + 30 = $9,251 per year. After HOA, you will be paying $855 per month before mortgage. Your mortgage will be in 2000-2500/month range depending on down payment.
Still need $100K+ to buy this SEH property.
esmith - going by your number, the combined monthly payment is still as high as $3355. Since most financial experts will advise that fixed housing expenses not to exceed 50% of household net income, a family will need to net $6,710/mo. or $80,520/yr. to live here. Based on a total of 35% deduction (taxes, 401K, medical, etc.), the family's combined income must be higher than $120K. That's still way too unaffordable for me or most San Diegan families.
SEH properties will be attractive to me only after MR is fully paid off, but that'll be like 20 years later.
More foreclosures coming in SEH. Living here, its very sad to see SO MANY people struggling to make the rediculous Mello Roos, much less the mortgage while I rent for half the price. On my street of about 20 houses, 3 have foreclosed this year, 2 houses are currently vacant ( one of them not even on the MLS) and I know personally 3 houses who have not made a mortgage payment in over 6 months. It seems that there is a high level of people in SEH that are related to housing, construction and finance, so I know for a fact the REO's will only increase in 2009. Watch for low $400K pricing this year.
I think the MR issue in SEH is overblown.
The area near town center has about $2400/yr. That is the same or less than Bressi, Carillo, and LCG.
The 'bubble' area off of Questhaven (Antilla, Orion) is ridiculous at ~$4800/yr. But still, half the houses or more are in the $2400-$3000 range. Not great, but not an issue worth whining so much about.
$120K in income is really just two school teachers with 5 years experience each.
I think the bottom in the town center area is at 2002 pricing - about $425K-$450K for 3000 sq ft.
Well, SEH is not a middle-class area.
And, your combined monthly payment of $3355/month includes $520 of "forced savings (principal)" and $650-$750 of tax savings. So, your "rent equivalent" is in low 2000's. For a house that rents in high 2000's.
I rent in SEH too. Do you mind sharing your general location and rent? I am near the town cener area (Archer/Sagewood, etc.) and pay $2900 for 3000 sq ft.
Owner paid 715 in 2005. I think this is worth 575-600 right now.
$2600 for 2600sq ft off on Hollowbrook, and includeds my gardner and water. Owner paid $600K with $300K down, so their not likely going to walk. GOod for me, bad for them.
MR are included with your real estate tax bill supposedly and I have asked many people in MR homes if they deduct it - all of them do although not supposed to. I wonder when that will start getting enforced. Until it is, MR arent as bad as they seem. And on that note, with these MR areas as bad as they are, I bet the tax man doesnt enforce it so as to not make things worse.
Two comments about 400K homes - the ones on Old glen backup to Power Towers. That street was asking low 600s back in Jan 2007. These must come way down, possibly sub 400 to be worth anything. Those power towers are too close.
Down the hill near the towncenter on (Calistoga and Kenwood) yes I think these need to get to 400. They are small homes.
I wish someone would put in a cafe/ lounge at night where the adults could walk to in the evenings. Whatever happened to the proposed restaraunts?
Wating for bottom, brace yourelf, we are going lower than 2002 levels, lower than 2000 levels...and even far lower from there. Although it's quite a puzzle, try to incororate the bigger picture. We are in the middle of a nuclear financial war in the USA, and SoCal is part of ground zero. Good luck and take a pulse check about 2013 or a few years later for when I think we are approaching a bottom.
MR is just not good business
I see 2 issues with MR:
1. Claiming MR as part of the property tax is like speeding, technically illegal but everyone does it. Still, there's a real risk and repercussion of getting caught.
2. Just because MR is tax deductible doesn't mean that it's fully offset. I believe most middle class family will still end up paying 50% - 60%, after tax deduction. For a home with MR of $4,000+, combining with HOA of $85 - $250 per month, that's still a lot.
SEH is a middle class community, and a very attractive one, I must say. If/when an average single family house (2,000 - 2,500 sq.ft.) in good condition falls to less than $400K in SEH, it would be a worthy purchase, offsetting the high MR and/or HOA.
How do you define 2000 levels or lower for homes built in 2002 or 2006? What comps do you use?
comps become skewed in a ugly downturn. The $400 k example that the previous poster just made, I see going to aprox $250 before we see the real bottom.
That's a weak response. $250K based on what?
Based on current rents, $525K is breakeven point at 4.75% and 20% down.
Also, you cannot compare Old Glenn to the town center area or even the other places off of Questhaven. It is the smallest, cheapest, poorest constructed area of SEH.
Also, you cannot compare Old Glenn to the town center area or even the other places off of Questhaven. It is the smallest, cheapest, poorest constructed area of SEH.
Questhaven has the poorest builds?
Old Glen does.
Lake Wobegon effect.
SEH is an upper-middle-class community. It is natural for upper-middle-class communities (SEH) to be very attractive but unaffordable for the middle class, and for upper-class communities (Carmel Valley and La Jolla) to be very attractive but unaffordable for the upper-middle class. And there's nothing anyone can do about it.
Ah ok - any insight into the homes on brightwood/ clifftop or the gated area in between cliff/bright and old glen?
Brightwood and Clifftop are nice streets with nice houses. I'll bet 50-60% of Brightwood has been foreclosed or sold short in the past 15 months. I'd live on either street. Watch for the odd numbered house at the end of Brightwood to be listed shortly - it was foreclosed last month. The idiot neighbor bought 1089 at $680K in the past year - knife catcher.
Saverene is average for gated. Houses are above average but lots are really cramped and the worst thing for me is no/small sidewalks. Good deals recently on Trenton but still haven't fallen enough - yet.
Best gated in SEH is Woodcliffe (Schoolhouse, Misty Sea).
Lake Wobegon effect.
That's what exotic financing was for. Now we just need the class movers to get foreclosed on and move back where they belong - then we'll be back to normal.
Saverene is average for gated. Houses are above average but lots are really cramped and the worst thing for me is no/small sidewalks. Good deals recently on Trenton but still haven't fallen enough - yet.
Best gated in SEH is Woodcliffe (Schoolhouse, Misty Sea).
Thanks for the update - I think you mean Westcliffe, built by ColRich communities and what is Trenton? Also, on this map http://www.sanelijohills.net/html/map.html it looks like the gated community next to brightwood is both azure and saverne, no?
It's my prediction based on observaton of the SoCal, USA, and world economies. The only saving grace which could make that $250k price more firm, is the stronger inflation in the coming years. Good luck. Bear markets in the housing industry usually take years to correct, just think how long THIS ONE will take.
piggyarg: Your argument is perfectly rational when measured from a fixed value $. But we (USA) have Helicopter Ben exactly to prevent that catastrophe from becoming noticed. He is pumping liquidity fast and creatively enough that asset deflation will not occur. Look for an inflation rate of at least 10% over the next decade as the forced liquidity works its magic. It is the '70s story all over again - an expensive war followed by raging inflation. That helps all debtors, including governments. Really, there are no losers (other than savers, who aren't many) politically.
Yes, Westcliffe not Woodcliffe.
Trenton is a street in Saverne. Not sure what Azure is but those are the streets within Saverne (Genoa/Milan).